The Failure of Forecast

Most people would say that 2020 has been a crazy year!  I’d have to agree.  Now we have a bunch of economists and market strategists providing a forecast for the remainder of the year.   Before we decide whether or not we should listen to them, let’s first take a look at how they did in the first half of the year. 

As we now know, in March we had the largest market drop in the shortest timeframe in history.  The Market dropped 36% in just 33 days.  None of the market strategists forecasted anything like this.  How could have anyone predicted and Global Pandemic, right?  Exactly, they couldn’t nor should we expect them to have that ability.  It’s not predictable.

That’s the failure with predictions.  Trying to predict something isn’t about the experience or knowledge of the predictor.  It’s more about whether or not something is even predictable in the first place.  I believe that that markets cannot be predicted accurately and consistently.

Yes!  A forecast can be attractive and exciting but as I’ve said many times in the past and will continue to say long into the future, ignore them, no matter how alluring they are.  I get it!  We all want to know what the future holds but the best thing you can do is turn off your TV and speak with me.  I know what the so-called “experts on TV are saying and I can help you determine whether its just noise or actually useful. 

Our greatest tool we have in this uncertain time is your financial plan.  We may discuss what the future holds but I will refer to your customized plan to ensure that any decision we make is well-thought-out and are aligned with your goals.

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.